¶ … Exchange Rates and Export Opportunities
This paper compares exchange rates between Australia, Great Britain, and Japan from last February 28th, 2003 and August 28th, 2002. Analysis of where a company could focus its export business based on past current and 180 days forward exchange rate trends and other factors will then be examined. Finally a memorandum to convince management that establishing an export business to one of the countries below is a good idea.
Comparative exchange rates between 4 selected countries and the U.S.
Below are the exchange rates listed by the Pacific Stock Exchange for February 28, 2003 for Australia, Great Britain, and Japan. (Pacific Stock Exchange Website)
Code
Country
Units/USD
USD/Unit
AUD
Australia (Dollar)
GBP
Great Britain (Pound)
JPY
Japan (Yen)
KRW
South Korea (Won)
Below are the exchange rates listed by the Pacific Stock Exchange for August 28, 2002 for Australia, Great Britain, and Japan. (Pacific Stock Exchange Website)
YYYY/MM/DD 2002/08/28
USD/AUD
USD/GBP
USD/JPY
USD/KRW
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
JPY/USD
KRW/USD
Examining exchange rates between the four chosen countries and the U.S.
As can be seen by the charts on the previous page in the past six months (August 28th, 2002 - February 28th, 2003) the dollar has become stronger against the currencies of Australia and Japan while losing strength against the currencies of South Korea and Great Britain. Current geo-political issues, specifically the increasing belligerency of North Korea and the concurrent cooling of relations...
And the U.K. appears to hold steady in the very short-term. However 180 forward rates indicated the market believes that the dollar will gain slightly against the British Sterling and will continue to do so for a 2-year period.
Period Bid Ask Period Bid Ask
Month
12-Month
Source: OZFOREX
http://www.ozforex.com.au/cgi-bin/forwardrates.asp basic economic theory in international trade is that currency depreciation encourages exports, (Blaine, 1996). The GBP/USD rate should continue to favor the U.S. For the foreseeable future.
Great Britain uses an independent floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is market determined, with any foreign exchange intervention aimed at moderating the rate of change and preventing undue fluctuations in the exchange rate, rather than at establishing a level for it, (Bank of England, 2003). With this regime financial forecasting for trends and profit potential can be more accurately measured based on real market rates for the Pound.
Other determining factors for focusing the on the U.K. For an export market include the stability of the Government, the relatively high level education and rising discretionary income in it's population and as a foot hold for acquiring markets in Europe.
A brief discussion on the use of exchange rates alone on whether to enter an overseas market:
basic precept of economic theory is that currency depreciation encourages exports and improves a nation's trade balance. (Blaine, 1996) However, currencies began to float freely, more or less, in 1973…
